There are two ways to run a campaign: one is to win over the reasonable edge of the opposition, putting your opponent on the defensive by invading their territory; the second is to play to your base and pray for high turnout.

The Bloomberg campaign has obsessively followed the first model to its current 30-point lead in the polls, while Fernando Ferrer's lack of traction is due largely to his adherence to the second, old-Democrat script.

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